April 11, 2021

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AccuWeather forecasts 16-20 tropical storms will form in the Atlantic Ocean this year


Miami – The meteorological services company AccuWeather reported this Monday that, according to its forecasts, in 2021 between 16 and 20 named tropical storms will form in the Atlantic Ocean, of which between seven and ten will become hurricanes, a smaller count than that of 2020, the year of all records.

Dan Klottowski’s team of meteorologists, with 45 years of experience, believes that the continental United States, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands will hit between three and five storms this year.

Of the 2021 storms that will become hurricanes, three to five will be category three, four or five on the Saffir-Simpsons scale, which is to say that their maximum sustained winds will reach a speed of 111 miles per hour or more.

Although 2021 will be a year above “normal” in terms of cyclonic activity in the Atlantic, it will not reach the end of 2020, according to the report published today by AccuWeather.

In the 2020 season, the busiest in history, there were 30 named storms, thirteen of them hurricanes and six of them major.

It was also a record because the United States suffered twelve direct hits, three more than in 1916, which had the previous mark, according to AccuWeather.

The private company mentions in its report a study by Brian McNoldy, from the University of Miami (UM), on the period 1991-2020, which establishes that a “normal” season is one with 14 storms and seven hurricanes and three emerge from them. of them reach the senior category (3, 4 and 5 on the Saffir Simpson scale).

“Current indications point to a new season above normal and that may translate into high impacts in the United States”Kottlowski said.

Among the factors that the AccuWeather team has taken into account for its forecasts are the climatic fluctuations in the Pacific known as El Niño and La Niña, which produce changes in the temperatures of that ocean.

“The big question now,” he says, “is whether La Niña will be present in the latter part of the hurricane season.”, which officially runs from June 1 to November 30, although the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is studying whether to advance its start, given that storms have been occurring before for years.

At the peak of the 2020 season, La Niña conditions favored the formation of storms in the Atlantic, underlines AccuWeather.

The company indicates, on the other hand, that the temperature of the water in the Atlantic is already above normal and there are “worrying signs” in the western part of that ocean.



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