April 19, 2021

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They classify as Invest 95L a tropical wave in the Atlantic with high cyclonic potential


He National Hurricane Center (NHC) classified as Invest 95L a strong tropical wave that is located south of the Cape Verde Islands and has a high potential for cyclonic development in both the two and five day period.

Specifically, the meteorological agency granted this morning a 70% probability of development in 48 hours and 90% in five days, while reporting that it is possible that the system will turn into a tropical depression as soon as this end of week.

However, the meteorologist from the National Meteorology Service (SNM) in San Juan Cecille Villanueva pointed out that there is a lot of uncertainty with the projections of this system because the long-term models are not in consensus regarding its trajectory and intensity.

“Actually, it is still being investigated how this system is going to develop. It can turn into depression or something stronger in the next few days. But the models are not matching neither in trajectory nor intensity, nor how fast it would be developing. So you have to keep monitoring it in the coming days “said the expert in an interview with The new day.

“Regardless of what we know now or what may happen, we want to emphasize to the public that we are at the peak of the hurricane season and therefore contingency plans already have to be completed and reviewed. We are seeing a lot of activity in the Atlantic ”, he addressed.

Currently, the NHC monitors two tropical storms (Paulette and René) and four tropical waves with the potential for cyclonic development.

Map showing storms and areas with cyclonic potential monitored by the National Hurricane Center. (NOAA / NHC)

Villanueva urged the public to take with measure the information that transcends the Invest 95L due to the margin of error that exists with the forecast of its possible formation.

“We won’t know what, if anything, to expect from that system because it is so far away. As the days get closer we will have a better idea “, he indicated.

The long-term forecast for this system has been erratic since last Tuesday when the Global Forecast System (GFS) model placed an intense hurricane over Puerto Rico in just over a week, while the European model (ECMWF) suggested a hurricane. intense, but south of the island.

The meteorologist pointed out that the conditions for this strong tropical wave to develop are favorable since the surface temperatures of the Atlantic Ocean are hot and there is low intensity of cutting winds.

If its cyclonic formation takes place, this would be tropical depression 19. If it increases its intensity until it becomes a storm, it would bear the name of Sally.

So far this season, 18 cyclones have formed, of which 17 were named storms, five reached hurricane strength and one of them was intense.

“We ask people to please keep an eye on the bulletins from the National Hurricane Center and the local Meteorology Office for constant updating of the reports on this phenomenon,” Villanueva said.



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