The world is approaching the temperature limit set by the world’s rulers five years ago and could exceed it in the next decade, according to a new United Nations report.
In the next five years the world has a one in four chance of experiencing a year hot enough to raise global temperature by 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times, according to an update released by the UN. , the World Meteorological Organization and other global scientific groups.
That increase is the strictest of two limits set in 2015 by the world’s rulers in the Paris agreement to combat climate change. A UN scientific report in 2018 said the world is capable of surviving an even higher temperature rise, but the dangers are growing enormously.
Months ago there were record temperatures of 54.4 degrees Celsius in Death Valley, California and 38 degrees in Siberia.
The warming already recorded has “increased the odds of extreme events that are unprecedented in our historical experience,” said climatologist Noah Diffenbaugh of Stanford University.
For example, historic global warming has increased the odds of record temperatures by more than 80% of the globe and has “doubled or even tripled the odds in the California and western United States region, which has experienced record heat in recent years. weeks, ”Diffenbaugh added.
The global temperature has risen 1.1 degrees Celsius (2 degrees Fahrenheit) since the late 1800s, and the past five years have been warmer than the previous five years. The acceleration may be temporary, but it may not be. There is man-made warming and natural warming due to a strong El Niño pattern in the last five years, said WMO Secretary General Petteri Taalas.
“The probability of 1.5 degrees increases year by year,” Taalas told The Associated Press. “This is very likely to happen in the next decade if we don’t change our behavior.”
The 2018 UN report predicted that 1.5 degree rise for 2030-2052.
This year is on track to be the second-warmest year on record and has a 37% chance of breaking the 2016 global record, according to the U.S. National Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). ).