November 25, 2020

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USGS Releases Reflection Forecast Update | PRESENT


The United States Geological Survey ( USGS ) released an update on the forecast of possible aftershocks for the next month for the Island.

Since the January 7 earthquake , 1,425 aftershocks of magnitude 3 or greater have been recorded, while 15 aftershocks of magnitude 5 or greater have been felt.

The USGS reported in its most recent forecast that between 16 and 16 weeks at 200 aftershocks of magnitude 3.0 or greater. The probability of an earthquake of magnitude 3.0 or greater remains at 99%.

Likewise, the probability of an earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or greater decreased to 23% for the same period.

In the case from an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater, the probability was reduced to 2%. While the chance of one of 7.0 or greater is 1 in 400.

Meanwhile, the USGS recalled that “no one can predict the exact time or place of an earthquake, including aftershocks. Our earthquake forecasts give us an idea of ​​the possibilities of having more earthquakes within a certain period of time in the affected area. "

The scientific agency uses a statistical analysis based on past earthquakes to calculate this forecast.



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